[SMM Analysis] the Domestic Aluminum Profile Market Will Be Overturned From July to August to October, Or Will Turn-Aluminum Profiles Supplier

According to the exchange process of SMM and more than 20 aluminum profile companies in the industry, everyone has unanimously agreed that in July and August, it has always been the off -season in the aluminum material industry, and this year is also the same. Influence. But why faded, when did it fade to profit, whether the industry is different, and what is the most concerned direction point in the industry? The author summarizes the following points through more than 20 experienced market participants in the industry, and summarizes the following points.

1: June/July Market Feedback: Five profile factories report that although the construction aluminum profiles in Guangdong have a large market share, their own output will be reduced by 20%-30%in July, and they basically believe that August and 7 The moon will be in a flat attitude compared to the same attitude, and it will turn slightly. Ten companies in the north are not optimistic. Several small and medium-sized enterprises in northern Anhui, Hebei and Shandong report that production decreases by about 30%-40%. Two companies in East China have stated that they have weakened downstream demand and decreased output. Two of them reflected their orders by about 1/4. However, the four companies in Sichuan and Fujian reflect that although the markets of the two places have been slightly affected, they are basically stable and the annual data is not much different. In June, photovoltaic products were almost stunned due to changes in national subsidy policies and India's dual anti -policy. A number of companies have said that the cost of photovoltaic products is slowly reduced to gradually reduce the scope of this business. In terms of automotive aluminum profiles, the four companies said that the output and orders in June July were basically flat. The early July period was slightly pale, but there was a gradual trend in late July to early August. Produce. In terms of rail aluminum, a company said that the market has been relatively stable in the past two years, and the order performance has been stable in the past three months.

2: Why are the off -season fading? A decrease in the output of aluminum materials: reduction of downstream enterprises.

Nowadays, most companies in the industry considering the instability of orders, and more or less adopt a single production method, the demand is naturally reduced. For a long time in the factory machine, there will be some hidden safety hazards in work in high temperature environments, and the machinery and equipment of the profile plant will be maintained. The workshop environment that squeezes workers' work is not perfect, and workers will put short -term high temperature leave. Decreased downstream demand: The construction industry: This summer, there are many high temperatures in many places this summer. As of August 2, the Central Meteorological Observatory has issued high -temperature warning for 20 days in a row. Construction workers have reduced their working time. Land real estate slows down construction progress.

In addition, there are many real estate construction construction accidents that have attracted the attention of real estate and construction, and the suspension of work and maintenance has caused the demand for the construction industry to be reduced. The automobile industry: July/August is the low season of consumption in the automotive market. Because in the middle of the year, the settlement of corporate residents often had a certain pressure, and the consumption revenue was divided into less in the automotive market.

In addition, there are many summer cars in summer, and the demand for old car parts has squeezed out some new car needs.

3: The most concerned development direction in the industry: In short, new products and new markets. I communicated with many companies and learned that the recent aluminum template products in the construction industry have become short -term highlights. Due to the short construction cycle, the cost is lower than the steel template, the use is wide and the carrier capacity is favored by the building materials industry.

In addition, in recent years, the rapid development trend of new energy vehicles has put forward new requirements and prospects for the demand for aluminum alloy profiles. More use of high school aluminum alloy profiles and more high -middle -end aluminum alloy profiles in the body, chassis and battery shells of new energy vehicles A number of companies have expressed interest in aluminum -magnesium alloy profiles, but due to uncertainty in mass production and high requirements for manufacturing technology, although the market is seductive, it still has observation emotions.

4: How about aluminum profile outlook? The overall development of the overall development of Profit Factors in October will increase the support demand. There are many holidays in October, and the opening rate and sales of real estate will increase, and the demand for aluminum profiles will increase significantly. In particular, the three cantum -of -the -world fellowships in Guangdong every year will drive the production and sales of the local aluminum profile market to rise sharply. The "Gold 9 Silver 10" law, in September and October, car manufacturers often listed on new cars to stimulate sales, so the demand for aluminum profiles will increase greatly.

Since the peak season of the auto market has been approaching, some auto profile companies have said that the downstream demand has shown signs of changing, and the order performed well in early August. However, it should be noted that the market still has a factor. In order to resolutely make a three -year action plan for the "Blue Sky Defense", the central government is carrying out environmental protection inspections "look back" activities.

Due to pollution such as wastewater and acid -base sand during the production and processing of the profile, a large aluminum company in Jiangsu showed that it had purchased more than 30 million equipment to deal with wastewater waste residue, but small and medium -sized enterprises trapped the cost of funds. The influence, the Hebei enterprise expressed that the output was halved after the environmental protection instruction was issued, so it was necessary to alert the impact of the action plan on aluminum profile enterprises.